I have been plowing through data on guns in the US and it is much more complicated than I expected -- and filled with surprises -- like there is very little clear data.
Currently, in the US, there are no federal laws banning semiautomatic assault weapons, military-style .50 caliber rifles, handguns, or large-capacity ammunition magazines, which can increase the potential lethality of a given firearm. There was a federal prohibition on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines between 1994 and 2004, but Congress allowed these restrictions to expire.
Australia did change -- and since the 1996 National Firearms Agreement legislation passed, the risk of dying by gunshots was reduced by 50% in the following years and stayed on that lower level since then. The rate of gun related suicide was greatly reduced as well. BUT much to my surprise, there are now more guns in Australia than there were before 1996 (Port Arthur).
www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-28/alpers-the-truth-about-gun-ownership-after-port-arthur/7365790Australia had buyback programs in 1996 and 2003. Both programs were compulsory, and involved compensation paid to owners of firearms made illegal by gun law changes and surrendered to the government. Bought back firearms were destroyed.
The 1996 "National Firearms Buyback Program" took 660,959 firearms out of private hands comprising long guns, mostly semi-automatic rimfire rifles and shotguns as well as pump-action shotguns, and a smaller proportion of higher powered or military type semi-automatic rifles. Cost the government about $500 million. The 1996 firearm laws were immediately followed by a buying spree, as banned rapid-fire rifles and shotguns were replaced with freshly imported single-shot firearms.
In 2003 they bought back handguns and target pistols of greater than .38 calibre and handguns with barrels less than 120mm (semi-automatic) or 100mm (revolvers) such as pocket pistols.
One million guns were destroyed after Port Arthur but they were replaced with 1,026,000 new ones. And the surge only shows upward momentum. Last year, Australia imported 104,000 guns -- and that is not counting the illicit guns that are owned in Australia -- purchased in the gray market.
***.
It is really difficult to figure out how to solve the gun issue in the US -- partly because there is so little information. It is shocking!
For starters, we do not even know how many guns are in the US. US gun manufactures do not report sales details by type of gun. And imports are not reported. A November 2012 Congressional Research Service report found that, as of 2009, there were approximately 310 million firearms in the United States: “114 million handguns, 110 million rifles, and 86 million shotguns.” However, author William J. Krouse went on to note that “data are not available on the number of ‘assault weapons’ in private possession or available for sale, but
one study estimated that 1.5 million assault weapons were privately owned in 1994.” An assault weapon is more powerful than the semi-automatic Modern Sporting Rifle (AR-15) used in Orlando.
The best estimates I can find are:
Assault weapons like the AK-47 - about 5 million in the US owned by civilians. These are fully automatic military weapons.
AR-15 - about 3 million - semi-automatic.
Ruger Mini-14 rifles - about 800,000 - this is the rifle that Anders Behring Breivik used in the Oslo summer camp shootings - semi-automatic.
All Modern Sporting Rifles (semi-automatic like the AR-15, a Ruger Mini-14) - 20-30 million lawfully owned Modern Sporting Rifles in the US -- about 50 million total.
Since 2009, there has been gun buying spree -- and some gun control advocates estimate that there are now 350-400 million legal guns in the US and another 100-150 million illegal guns in the US not counting grandpa's antique gun he left you. Working guns. So a buy back needs to be 500 million guns -- give or take.
A December, 2013 buyback in Camden County, N.J., paid residents on a sliding scale from $50 for a gun that couldn’t fire to $250 for a high-powered weapon. Police set a state buyback record, collecting 1,137 guns, including
five automatic assault weapons. No scale and it is easy to buy a new gun.
Do assault weapons bans work? It is not clear. In 1994 President Clinton initiated a Federal Assault Weapon Ban that lasted a decade, sunsetting in 2004. Since the sunset of the Clinton ban rifle related homicides, along with all other homicides have dropped, in the year 2000 the center point of the AWB ban, rifle deaths in the U.S. were 14.4% higher than they were in 2009.
What about a gun buy-back and ban?So let's say that the US banned guns and required people to turn in their guns -- and assume the government paid an average of $300 a gun -- 500 million guns would required $150+ billion. And what would people do with their gun money? The people who turned in old useless guns left over from WWI will go out to dinner. The guy who turns in his 16 AK-47s and his 8 AR-15s would probably figure out a way to buy a missile launcher because it wasn't on the banned list.
The Senate can't even pass a law to prohibit suspected terrorists from buying guns.Last December, one day after at least 14 people were killed during the San Bernardino massacre in California by two suspects, including a woman said to have pledged allegiance to ISIS, Senate Republicans rejected a bill that aims to stop suspected terrorists from legally buying guns. Forty-five senators voted for the bill and 54 voted against it. One Democrat, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and one Republican, Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois, crossed party lines.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who sponsored the legislation, argued that former President George W. Bush initially proposed the legislation in 2007, and the Obama administration also supports it.
There is a new push to get this law passed. It is expected to fail again. When this vote comes up, that is the time to call, write, tweet, etc. your elected officials -- particularly the Republicans in swing states who are up for reelection.