11.23.15 - 11.29.15 Numbers Thread

“Another Lonely Night” Accelerates at Hot AC
musicindustrysandbox.wordpress.com/2015/11/22/another-lonely-night-accelerates-at-hot-ac/

Adam Lambert’s latest single off of The Original High has been accelerating modestly on Hot AC/Adult Pop. In other words, the rate at which it is increasing in audience impressions and spins has itself been increasing. For Adam Lambert fans, this is good news, as it implies that the song will be a bigger hit sooner.

“Another Lonely Night” has risen at least one position each day on the 50-position Hot AC radio airplay chart since it debuted on 11/14/15, and it currently sits at #33, with 416 spins representing 1,376,000 audience impressions over the past week.

Over the past week, it is the 16th fastest-growing song on the HAC chart by spins. Over the day yesterday (Saturday) relative to the prior day (Friday), it was the 8th fastest-growing song by spins and the 10th fastest-growing by audience impressions.

Overall, “Another Lonely Night” rises from #601 to #584 (+17) on radio today. Since the day before its first appearance on the chart (9 days ago), its weekly audience impressions have increased from 895,000 to 1,376,000 (+481,000, or 53.74%), with most of that gain (262,000, or 54.47%) occurring in the past two days. In that same time frame, weekly spins have increased from 235 to 416 (+181, or 77.02%), with the weekly rate of change accelerating from 108 to 141 (+33, or +30.56%).

If the overall audience impressions still seem weak, its because they are. Keep in mind that this is a song that just debuted on its first airplay chart one week ago. Wait until it debuts on Pop (which it will reasonably soon, since it is getting a lot of adds), and give it a month to get established, and then the overall numbers should start to look competitive.

But, for now, we can look for patterns in the data that can be used to predict future performance.

Here is essentially all of the data we currently have on the radio performance of “Another Lonely Night.” This information is available and updated semi-regularly on the data page for “Another Lonely Night.”

Adult Pop (HAC)

11/13 Friday: #NA; 235 weekly spins; +108 week-over-week weekly spins; 895,000 weekly audience impressions.

11/14 Saturday: #50; 252 weekly spins (+17); +109 week-over-week weekly spins (+1); 903,000 weekly audience impressions (+8,000).

11/15 Sunday: #48 (+2); 275 weekly spins (+23); +113 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 949,000 weekly audience impressions (+46,000).

11/16 Monday: #41 (+7); 297 weekly spins (+22); +119 week-over-week weekly spins (+6); 993,000 weekly audience impressions (+44,000).

11/17 Tuesday: #39 (+2); 314 weekly spins (+17); +121 week-over-week weekly spins (+2); 1,035,000 weekly audience impressions (+42,000).

11/18 Wednesday: #38 (+1); 328 weekly spins (+14); +117 week-over-week weekly spins (-4); 1,023,000 weekly audience impressions (-12,000).

11/19 Thursday: #37 (+1); 350 weekly spins (+22); +128 week-over-week weekly spins (+11); 1,066,000 weekly audience impressions (+43,000).

11/20 Friday: #35 (+2); 372 weekly spins (+22); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+9); 1,114,000 weekly audience impressions (+48,000).

11/21 Saturday: #34 (+1); 389 weekly spins (+17); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+0); 1,221,000 weekly audience impressions (+107,000).

11/22 Sunday: #33 (+1); 416 weekly spins (+27); +141 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 1,376,000 weekly audience impressions (+155,000).


So what can we do with this data?

The easiest thing to do is to extrapolate future chart positions from the current week-over-week spin increase. If we simply assume that spins will continue to increase at their current rate of 141/week, then we can project future chart positions in coming Sundays of: 31 (557 spins), 30 (698 spins), 28 (839 spins), 25 (980 spins), 24 (1121 spins), and 23 (1262 spins).

But, the rate of increase of weekly spins has itself been increasing at a rate of 3 2/3 per day, or 25 2/3 per week. If we assume a constant rate of acceleration of 25 2/3 spins per week, then we can project future chart positions in coming Sundays of: 31 (582.67 spins, or +166.67), 29 (775 spins, or +192.33), 25 (993 spins, or +218), 24 (1226.67 spins, or +233.67), 22 (1486 spins, or +259.33), and 19 (1771 spins, or +285).

So, take from that what you will. It’s by no means inconceivable that Adam Lambert’s song could be a top 20 hit on HAC in 6 weeks, but neither is it guaranteed. The song could slow before then, or it could start picking up steam.

Right now, of course, we are only operating on nine days’ worth of data. Adam hasn’t been performing the song on a lot of television shows, and we don’t have any Callout survey data on song-popularity yet. As more data start to come in, we will be able to generate more firm predictions.


So what can we say?

We can definitively say that the song is not toast yet. There is no real probative evidence that suggests that the song won’t be a hit.

Personally, I always thought “Another Lonely Night” was one of if not the song on the album with the biggest hit potential. “Ghost Town” is a good song, but it sounds like something you would hear in the club or on certain specialized radio stations. It never sounded like a pop hit to me.

“Another Lonely Night” sounds EXACTLY like a pop hit. Honestly, I kindof suspect that Warner Bros. released “Ghost Town” first in order to break the ice. They wanted to put a song out there that would slowly build up radio airplay in a completely organic and non-controversial way, so that radio would get used to the idea that it is safe to play Adam Lambert. Then, they drop the next big thing out of the bag. It isn’t dead on entry because radio has already been warmed up for Adam Lambert. The song gets a critical mass of early spins, and it starts to take root in people’s minds. It does well because its a good song, and then it starts to generate mainstream attention and pull in heavy radio airplay.

Keep in mind that Max Martin and Shellback are responsible for more pop hits than practically anyone else in history. They were at the heart of Adam Lambert’s early success, and they were absent from his commercially unsuccessful second studio effort. Adam Lambert has the capacity to be a permanent force in the music industry. He has a core fanbase that rivals (and frequently bests) those of any female pop diva, on, for example, stacking online votes. His flamboyant sexuality is barely even an issue these days. Coupled with hitmakers like Max Martin and Shellback and firmly backed by a supportive label, there is no reason to think that Adam can’t achieve mainstream success, and if “Another Lonely Night” isn’t the song that is going to get him there, then I’m seriously misreading the music market.

But, it will be interesting to see if the data end up confirming my suspicions. Let me know what you think in the comments below.

Another Lonely Night

iTunes:
#3 Poland (+2)
#27 Namibia (+14)
#59 South Africa (-2)
#68 Finland (+63)
#90 Estonia (+23)
#169 Netherlands (NE)

Spotify:
#149 Poland

PUBLISHED CHARTS

ALN

HAC:
44 32 ADAM LAMBERT Another Lonely Night 416 275 141 1.376


GT

CAN HAC:
22 22 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 413 436 -23 2.676


Monday Update

ALN

HAC:
41 32 ADAM LAMBERT Another Lonely Night 437 297 140 1.439

+21 Spins
-1 Bullet
+0.063 Audience


GT

CAN HAC:
22 21 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 406 437 -31 2.648

-7 Spins
-8 Bullet
-0.028 Audience

GT detail first as you can see we still have some stations spinning fairly strongly.


GT

POP:

SONG CHARTS : LEADERS
Mediabase
ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town
Warner Bros.
lw: Nov 9 - Nov 15   TW: Nov 16 - Nov 22
Station Market Format TW lw Move ovn am mid pm eve Aud
WKRZ-FM Wilkes-Barre Top 40 30 42 -12 6 6 6 7 5 0.253
WFLY-FM Albany, NY Top 40 15 14 1 4 1 5 3 2 0.078
X003-FM >SiriusXM Top 40 15  9 6 4 2 4 2 3 0
WJIM-FM Lansing Top 40 14 24 -10 6 1 5 1 1 0.043
WNFN-FM Nashville Top 40 14 12 2 6 1 6 1 0.014
S001-FM >SiriusXM Top 40 10 17 -7 2 2 3 1 2 0


HAC:

SONG CHARTS : LEADERS
Mediabase
ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town
Warner Bros.
lw: Nov 9 - Nov 15   TW: Nov 16 - Nov 22
Station Market Format TW lw Move ovn am mid pm eve Aud
WQAL-FM Cleveland Hot AC 44 21 23 12 6 9 8 9 0.26
WTMX-FM Chicago Hot AC 41 40 1 11 4 10 7 9 1.164
WWFS-FM New York Hot AC 20 23 -3 7 1 4 5 3 0.599
WURV-FM Richmond Hot AC 17 19 -2 5 4 2 3 3 0.047
WGYL-FM Ft. Pierce, FL Hot AC 14 13 1 3 2 3 4 2 0.018
W1HA-FM >WestwoodOne Hot AC 13 15 -2 6 1 1 5 0.558
KCIX-FM Boise, ID Hot AC 11 15 -4 4 1 4 2 0.018
KQKQ-FM Omaha Hot AC 7 13 -6 3 1 2 1 0.013


AC:

SONG CHARTS : LEADERS
Mediabase
ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town
Warner Bros.
lw: Nov 9 - Nov 15   TW: Nov 16 - Nov 22
Station Market Format TW lw Move ovn am mid pm eve Aud
WHUD-FM Hudson Valley, NAC 7  5 2 3 1 1 1 1 0.046



Canada

CAN HAC:

SONG CHARTS : 7-DAY REPORT
Mediabase
Canada-Hot AC
Published (Canada) -- Published Chart -- Currents Only
lw: Nov 9 - Nov 15   TW: Nov 16 - Nov 22
lw TW Artist   Title TW lw Move Aud
22 21 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 406 437 -31 2.648


SONG CHARTS : LEADERS
Mediabase
ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town
Warner Bros.
lw: Nov 9 - Nov 15   TW: Nov 16 - Nov 22
Station Market Format TW lw Move ovn am mid pm eve Aud
CIOO-FM Halifax Canada-Hot AC 56 59 -3 14 9 11 9 13 0.26
CHUM-FM Toronto Canada-Hot AC 53 56 -3 13 8 11 10 11 1.697
CFLY-FM Kingston Canada-Hot AC 53 57 -4 13 9 10 9 12 0.007
CHBE-FM Victoria Canada-Hot AC 50 55 -5 12 9 10 11 8 0.127
CKPT-FM Peterborough Canada-Hot AC 48 48 12 9 10 8 9 0.047
CIMJ-FM Guelph Canada-Hot AC 32 29 3 10 5 7 5 5 0.079
CFCA-FM Kitchener Canada-Hot AC 26 33 -7 6 5 5 5 5 0.175
CHWV-FM Saint John Canada-Hot AC 22 23 -1 5 5 4 3 5 0.07
CKCE-FM Calgary Canada-Hot AC 16 22 -6 5 2 3 2 4 0.042
CKBZ-FM Kamloops Canada-Hot AC 16 16 3 2 4 3 4 0.016
CHOZ-FM St. John's Canada-Hot AC 12 17 -5 5 1 3 1 2 0.057
CISS-FM Ottawa Canada-Hot AC 11 12 -1 1 1 1 8 0.034


CAN AC:

SONG CHARTS : LEADERS
Mediabase
ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town
Warner Bros.
lw: Nov 9 - Nov 15   TW: Nov 16 - Nov 22
Station Market Format TW lw Move ovn am mid pm eve Aud
CJMJ-FM Ottawa Canada-Main AC 16 24 -8 5 4 3 2 2 0.109
CKIZ-FM Vernon Canada-Main AC 16 15 1 4 2 4 1 5 0.031


OMG!! 

Higher than I was thinking. I was guessing in the mid 60s!!