11.24.12 Hong Kong week!

The Grammys are about the same as they always have been. It is the music industry's award show. The awards fall out as one would expect. Voters seem to vote on quality, history, future prospects and commercial success (as a measure of popularity) and for their friends.

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It is very hard to forecast what will happen with the Grammy nomination ballots. With a few hundred nominees in a category, Trespassing will have to be one of the top 5 vote getters to be nominated. So, probably getting 5% of the vote could get someone there in the #5 slot.

Adam/Trespassing was submitted in the following categories:

Album of the Year: Trespassing
Best Pop Vocal Album: Trespassing
Song of the Year: Better Than I Know Myself
Record of the Year: Better Than I Know Myself
Best Pop Solo Performance: Better Than I Know Myself

The competition in the Pop categories is really tough because there are fewer categories this year.

Here are a few of the artists on the nomination ballot for Best Pop Vocal Album:

Adam Lambert
Justin Bieber
Kelly Clarkson
Coldplay
Lana Del Rey
Florence + the Machine
fun
Nora Jones
Madonna
Maroon 5
John Mayer
Jason Mraz
One Direction
P!nk
Rihanna
Usher

Here are my guesses for the two categories Adam has a shot at -- I added metacritic scores and sales to the albums for perspective. IMO if Kelly Clarkson and P!nk had not released such good albums, Adam would have a better chance.

'Best Pop Vocal Album'
Kelly Clarkson - 'Stronger' MC 62 Est US sales 1,000K
fun - 'Some Nights' MC 60 Est US sales 700K
Lana Del Rey - 'Born to Die' MC 61 WW sales 3,000K
Norah Jones - 'Little Broken Hearts' MC 69 Est US sales 230K
P!nk - 'The Truth About Love' MC 77 Est US sales 500K +

Wild cards: One Direction 'Up All Night'
Justin Bieber 'Believe'
Maroon 5 'Overexposed'
Rihanna "Talk That Talk" .
Jason Mraz "Love is a Four Letter Word"
John Mayer "Born and Raised"

For comparison -- Trespassing MC 66 Est US sales 150K. Hard for an album/artist to get nominated for a popular music category with modest sales and no hit single. Critics opinions do not usually play much role in this category. But what does matter is being liked -- and Adam is well liked and that will generate some added votes.

I think Adam has a outside chance at getting a nomination for Best Pop Vocal Album.

'Best Pop Solo Performance'
Adele - 'Set Fire To The Rain'
Kelly Clarkson - 'Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)'
P!nk - 'Blow Me (One Last Kiss)'
Katy Perry - 'Wide Awake'
Bruno Mars - 'It Will Rain'

Wild cards: Carly Rae Jepsen 'Call Me Maybe', Jason Mraz "I Won’t Give Up", John Mayer "Shadow Days", Ed Sheeran "The A-Team"

I do not think Adam has a real shot in this category.

I will celebrate if Adam gets a nomination, but I certainly do not expect it. And from my read of most fan posts, most fans are hoping Adam gets nominated, not expecting it.

When Adam did his Thanksgiving tweet, I thought it looked like they were in a wharehouse area. It looks scary. Is it?

So, these buidlings



And, this



Would be in the same area?

Norah Jones has not had a hit single either and Lana's worldwide sales might be 3K but her US sales are around 300. So she's not making a big impression here. I don't think she's had a hit single either.
As an Adam fan, I would have to include Adam's Trespassing as a possibility, a "dark horse" so to speak, but a strong candidate.