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Post by crazyoldgal on May 4, 2012 8:33:14 GMT -5
Rihannsu
DO you know the spin increase???? adaminradioland didn't update #'s for today yet..
I saw yesterday he had an increase on 1 spin.... AI looking good
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2012 8:44:19 GMT -5
Apparently KISS 108 Boston gave NCOE 2 spins overnight! Did you guys see the album sales predictions on Pulse? Here are the May predictions. Seem high to me for both Adam & KA. This poster is supposed to be some sort of "insider". bit.ly/KeA22TMay 15: Adam Lambert 100k Glee Graduation 60k May 22: John Mayer 250k Slash 64k Kris Allen 40k Sade Live 30k Thoughts? No thoughts - questions! When people make these kind of predictions, is it correct that they are predicting first WEEK sales or something else (first day)? How do pre-orders figure in? (I know those questions have been answered here before, but I didn't take it in. Now that the album release is right around the corner, I feel a need to understand!) |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2012 8:45:02 GMT -5
Rihannsu DO you know the spin increase???? adaminradioland didn't update #'s for today yet.. I saw yesterday he had an increase on 1 spin.... AI looking good Are you talking about HAC? The spin is up 4 #49 ADAM LAMBERT Never Close Our Eyes 162 84 78 1.203 |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2012 8:47:33 GMT -5
Apparently KISS 108 Boston gave NCOE 2 spins overnight! Did you guys see the album sales predictions on Pulse? Here are the May predictions. Seem high to me for both Adam & KA. This poster is supposed to be some sort of "insider". bit.ly/KeA22TMay 15: Adam Lambert 100k Glee Graduation 60k May 22: John Mayer 250k Slash 64k Kris Allen 40k Sade Live 30k Thoughts? No thoughts - questions! When people make these kind of predictions, is it correct that they are predicting first WEEK sales or something else (first day)? How do pre-orders figure in? (I know those questions have been answered here before, but I didn't take it in. Now that the album release is right around the corner, I feel a need to understand!) These are first week predictions. One thing people predicting, now, have not taken into their equation is GLAMBERTS!!!!  |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2012 8:57:02 GMT -5
Thank you! - and pre-orders count as first week sales, right?
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Post by wingsofbutterflies on May 4, 2012 9:29:17 GMT -5
LVA @zambiaglambert YAY! Danish National Radio has taken up NCOE big time. Played 34 times so far  bit.ly/IJK0vr Click diff song links 4 specific info |
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Post by stardust on May 4, 2012 9:32:31 GMT -5
Mediabase Update
NCOE
HAC
58 49 ADAM LAMBERT Never Close Our Eyes 162 84 78 1.203
+4 spins
-11 bullet
+0.009 AI
CHR
116 106 LAMBERT, ADAM Never Close Our Eyes 38 31 7 0.948
BTIKM
HAC
36 45 ADAM LAMBERT Better Than I Know M... 218 408 -190 1.269
CHR
140 130 LAMBERT, ADAM Better Than I Know Myself 27 25 2 0.036
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Post by Q3 on May 4, 2012 9:38:51 GMT -5
Those forecasts look reasonable to me. I think the sales forecast for Adam is in the ballpark but I think a bit high --- I am hoping that Trespassing opens > 100K but certainly not predicting that.* The Glee Graduation number looks good to me. The John Mayer number looks a bit high to me. Battle Studies (2009) opened with 286,000 -- but that was without a big hit single on Adult Pop. This cycle he has less presence on radio. I think 250K will be a stretch - more like 200K but certain to be #1. The forecast for Kris is not impressive but I will be impressed if he hits it. I guess they are banking on attention because they are released at the end of the Idol season and 1 week after Adam. But he has a core group of fans and sold 23K of his lead single -- so it is possible. * The wild card with Adam's sales is that core fans buy so many copies, and that is hard to forecast. ETA: IF Really good reviews for this album come out next week, then the dynamic will change. IF CHR starts playing NCOE then the dynamic will change. IF the Idol performance > Idol WWFM, the dynamic changes. BUT I think week 1 TRESPASSING sales will mostly be Adam fans. Thank you! - and pre-orders count as first week sales, right? Yes, if they are "delivered" in the first week. For physical product that is shipped, the date used is intended delivery date. |
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Post by Q3 on May 4, 2012 9:49:53 GMT -5
Mediabase UpdateNCOEHAC 58 49 ADAM LAMBERT Never Close Our Eyes 162 84 78 1.203 +4 spins -11 bullet +0.009 AI CHR 116 106 LAMBERT, ADAM Never Close Our Eyes 38 31 7 0.948 BTIKMHAC 36 45 ADAM LAMBERT Better Than I Know M... 218 408 -190 1.269 CHR 140 130 LAMBERT, ADAM Better Than I Know Myself 27 25 2 0.036 HAC Top 50 is lightening speed for Adam!!!! |
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Post by Q3 on May 4, 2012 10:43:47 GMT -5
Adam is likely to have the #1 debut in for release but Carrie Underwood and Adele will be real factors. He could need >80K to beat Carrie unless she has a really fast fall off -- and that would be a surprise. And Adele sells 80K a week, every week.
This is going to be close!!
From HDD -- next week's sales forecast:
Carrie Underwood will debut at #1 as Sony Music is set to occupy one half of next week's Top 10, while nearly half of the Top 15 will be debuts. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
*Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville) 270-295k
*Norah Jones (Blue Note/EMI) 95-105k
*Now 42 (Capitol/EMI) 95-105k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 75-80k
*B.o.B (Grand Hustle/Atlantic) 70-75k
Lionel Richie (Mercury Nashville) 70-75k
Jack White (Third Man/Columbia) 55-60k
One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 40-45k
*The Music of Smash (Columbia) 40-45k
*Marilyn Manson (Downtown) 35-40k
Lee Brice (Curb) 30-35k
Gotye (Fairfax/Universal Republic) 27-30k
*Avengers Assemble (Marvel Music/Hollywood) 25-28k
Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 24-27k
Kip Moore (MCA Nashville) 21-24k
Jason Mraz (Atlantic) 21-24k
*Debuts (5/3p)
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