2.12.12 - 2.18.12 Numbers Thread

I know! HaHa. If someone had told me a few months ago that I'd be cheering because Adam's single is in the 700's on iTunes I would have labelled them a troll & smacked them on the side of the head. Funny how your perspective changes when reality has to be faced.

I like the thought that the strategy is pushing BTIKM to be a moderate hit before releasing the next single which will be Top40 material and will climb more quickly up the charts. That makes sense to me. Bailing on BTIKM now is too early IMO.

Feel free to read this whole long post because it is positive and angst-free, I promise!

Okay, I've given this a lot of thought and this is the best theory I can come up with for what might be going on.

On other boards, everyone is convinced that BTIKM is a "flop" because it's not getting radio play and sales and thus, it will not sell the album and Trespassing will be a flop as well. That theory inspires a lot of angst, but when we really look at it, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

First, how can BTIKM be a flop when it hasn't really been market tested? This isn't a situation where the song is not connecting with people because frankly, most people have never even heard it. I would be more worried if it had a lot of big station adds, but then radio play steadily petered out, or if it was at the top of the chart with over a million AI, but no sales.

That is simply not the situation here. What is weird is that is has gotten adds and plays from a lot of smaller, more independent stations, but it has not been added or, in some cases, even given a single spin. What has also seemed weird is that until this week, there was hardly any radio promo to even push the song.

RCA is certainly capable to promoting a song to radio if it intends for the song to get played and to be used to support the album. To compare, look at Kris Allen. (Bear with me, I think he's relevant here.) His single is supposed to be released sometime this month. There is not even a release date yet, and the song along with other songs has been performed in a showcase at which at least one radio representative was present, the song is the background to a PSA that it being played on Clear Channel stations, and today someone in the programming department of one the biggest HAC station in LA blogged about the song saying that RCA had played it for her as a promo. There is no reason that RCA could not have done these things for BTIKM if they had wanted to, so I have to assume that they intentionally chose not to take this path.

The next question is why would they not do this for BTIKM if they thought its success was crucial to the album. The only conlcusion I could reach is that RCA doesn't really expect BTIKM to be huge hit, nor, more importantly, is it depending on it to sell the album. Actually, it would be pretty silly if it was. Say BTIKM rocketed to the top of the charts and was getting a boatload of plays and sales, how does that sell an album that, on all accounts, doesn't really even sound anything like it.

I think, to the contrary, that BTIKM is meant to be an introduction to the album and is meant to sell the album, not the song itself necessarily. From what we know, it doesn't represent the sound, but rather the theme of the album. We all know that Adam is theatrical; he is a storyteller. And even within songs, he is a genious at creating that dramatic arc. Isn't it possible that is what he is doing here. Just like his tour show was not just a compilation of random songs, but had a theme and an intentional storyline, I suspect this album does as well. Adam has repeatedly talked about how personal this album is and how it addresses the light and the dark sides of people, i.e., tHe same person who may want to just have fun and cruise for hot guys can also feel the pain when he finds true love with one of those guys and cannot express that love the way the ways other couples can. The BTIKM video sort of presents this entire theme in a very visible, touching way. In the video, dark Adam kicks in the mirror and the new Adam with both sides incorporated moves out of presumed confinement ready to take on the world. As several people have mentioned, as new Adam walks, he passes the trespassing tape. I also don't think it's coincidental that the last frame of the video looks very similar to the cover of Trespassing. If this were a musical, I could almost see Trespassing (based on Adam's description and the lyrics we've heard) as the next logical song.

Basically, I think that BTIKM is not supposed to be a best-selling single, but rather an introduction to the album. Maybe it is step one in a huge orchestrated marketing campaign for the album. That would explain why RCA and Adam are not pushing the single itself tot he extent that they clearly could and why they waited until after the single was out several weeks to really start US radio promotion. Also, Adam does not seem discouraged or frustrated as one might expect if the single was struggling or the album was in jeopardy, but rather like the cat that ate the canary. Plus, all the secrecy about the rest of the album makes it seem like they really think they are sitting on something big and the release will be something exciting and special. Isn't it possible that the focus is not getting a high-selling single, but rather building excitement for an album that could be huge and, dare I say, Grammy-worthy?

This is totally my wildass speculation and I could probably be totally offbase, but I'm going to go with my theory until proven otherwise.

Yup, and the simplest explanation is usually correct. What can I say, I had a couple of really boring conference calls this afternoon and the mind wandered . . . .

Ahh, twotrue! I've been kinda wondering about this as well. And it does explain the weird roll-out we've seen. I figure they are going to drop a big one when the time is right. I can't believe that RCA and DMG have screwed this up so badly accidentally - it must be intentional. (I hope) But, why all the big secrets?