3.11.12 - 3.17.12 Numbers Thread

It usually takes about 10 million in AI to make a noticeable impact on sales and not only is he not close to that but very little of his AI is CHR most is from HAC which does not have as strong a connection to sales as CHR. The best sales driver is AI from CHR stations. I think he is doing fine for where he is on the charts. The song has not dropped out of the top 1000 since the video was released and at this point I think radio is just helping to stabilize it but spins are increasing, he's still moving up on HAC and if he hits top 20 by this weekend that will be a milestone that will stimulate more spins as other stations will probably add.

To be perfectly honest, I really don't think how much BTIKM sells is really all that important in the long run because the song is serving a purpose in giving him something vocally impressive to sing in these acoustic radio gigs and setting up the concept of the album. As a promo tool I believe it is a success regardless of whether or not it goes higher on the charts.

You know the average person on the street would probably think Bieber has tons of #1 hits given his high profile and visibility yet his songs are more around top 15 range. There is lots of buzz about Adam and about his album and that buzz is as important to sales as any chart position on radio. In Adam's case I think a few good TV appearances leading up to the album drop will help. In any case I think in all actuality that RCA are working more towards long term sales goals than worrying about huge first week sales. Adele kind of set the model for that. Her first week sales while pretty big were nowhere near Gaga and Swifty levels but look at her now.

I'm curious to see what they are looking at doing in the UK because even though Shoshanna said BTIKM would not be released there, they did at least put the video up on iTunes and it is selling well and the video has been getting pretty decent airplay so at least there is awareness building in the UK on top of the Queen press so maybe they can wait a bit longer to choose a single giving BTIKM time to get a bit more traction here.

"[T]he song is serving a purpose in giving him something vocally impressive to sing in these acoustic radio gigs and setting up the concept of the album. As a promo tool I believe it is a success regardless of whether or not it goes higher on the charts.

[T]he average person on the street would probably think Bieber has tons of #1 hits given his high profile and visibility yet his songs are more around top 15 range. There is lots of buzz about Adam and about his album and that buzz is as important to sales as any chart position on radio."

I just loved that so much I wanted to quote it!

ALright I'm going to play devil's advocate here.

I still think a release of a single is expected to be a hit. I don't buy that it is introducing his album therefore all the acoustic version at studio promo's.

This single is not resonating that well with the public...it doesn't have a great hook (again, I love this song) ...Just take a look at that (IMO) awful song by Chris "HOMIES" look how high it is after a performance on Ellen. How far did BTIKM reach??? the 238?? (not quite sure the exact #'s)


Even Kelly released MKIA and it has done well.

THis is Adam's 1st single after a two year hiatus to introduce his album and I really don't think it's working that well. I really believe he should introduce another single.

John Q public doesn't go around checking chart positions for the most part. BTIKM IS a hit. It has made top 40 on the HAC chart which is enough to advertise it as a hit. As long as the media is on the bandwagon and keeps calling him a superstar and talking about his hit songs (which by the way the media even calls the FYE single a hit) the general perception is that he is a star. Name recognition and general awareness about an artist go A LONG way towards increasing sales. There is a lot to be said in terms of album longevity for not releasing the BEST song as the first single. If you do that then you have nowhere to go but down. Kelly herself said recently in a Q&A that the reason they released MKIA first is that they KNEW the could follow with Stronger but if they put Stronger out first MKIA would not have done well as a follow up. IIHY was not that far behind WWFM on the charts in terms of peak but it was widely considered within the bubble to have not done well at all. I would much rather if each successive single did BETTER than the one before than to have maybe one BIG hit and the rest fizzle. BTIKM should make top 20 oh HAC so even if it doesn't cross over to Pop it is still a hit and if the follow up is a bigger smash that's all good.

While we of course would like the prestige of great first week sales, RCA as a business is more concerned with sales over the life of the project and I would think building singles over the course of the project is better for that. I don't think at this point there is any danger of Adam NOT getting any more singles.