DISCLOSURE: I would pick "Cuckoo" as the next single -- a fun party track for the summer but I think any of the 4 singles on the list are fine choices. >> It seems likely that NCOE will be the next single, but that is not a fact yet. <<
1. I respectfully disagree with this statement --
"I believe largely that Adam needs to get up in people's faces in order to break through whatever prejudices or defenses they have going on." IMO Adam has changed people's opinions (and he has) because he is nice and real but neither threatening nor apologetic -- in interviews and personal appearances. Pop radio is not the place for political statements.
I can see the appeal of having Trespassing released as the next single -- it is my personal fav so far. It is the song I want to see live. But I also know that the song would be a very hard sell to Pop Radio -- because of the style and beat not the lyrics.
I want Adam to have a hit without it taking 5 months of hard work.
I know that there are many opinions among fans about this and I really doubt that any comment I post will change anyone's mind and vice versa.
2. A pop hit is not essential to selling a lot of albums --- but it helps -- a lot. It is almost impossible to replace the exposure an artist gets from a series of pop hits on radio.
But one hit single is not enough -- an hit album usually needs multiple hit tracks to keep fueling sales. FYE Adam had only one big hit -- and in the US the timing was off -- it was a hit a few months after the album was released.
And the timing of the hit matters --- ADAM NEEDS A LEAD SINGLE HIT this time. That means something on the radio when the album is released.
3. BTIKM was not a hit and only gained Adam modest radio exposure and even more modest track sales. He needs to have two back-to-back singles. (Note: This is not my opinion, it peaked at #76 on the Billboard 100.
Two possible scenarios seem likely to me -- NCOE followed by Cuckoo OR Cuckoo followed by NCOE.
4. IF they select NCOE now, it will be because they have balanced the info they have from music listeners and radio execs to pick the song most likely to break through. They will most likely ignore the opinions of die-hard Adam fans because we will buy the album no matter what the single is -- the question is about non-fans and casual fans who remember Adam from Idol.
5. It is not just about album sales -- track sales really matter and really help make the numbers works. A couple or three digital sales hits that sell 2+ million units could help Adam recoup the production costs. (In wholesales $ -- about 7 tracks = 1 album sale - RCA view.) A hit also spins off a lot of other revenue to the label, publisher, artist, writers.
6. If Adam has big hits, he can continue to work with whoever he wants. No big bit, he will have trouble getting A-level producers work with him in the future.
7. Big hit singles, mean a bigger budget for his tour.
Finally....
I think that Adam and his management have laid the foundation to have radio support for a good single that fits Pop radio.
I am confident that Adam can make NCOE amazing if that is the Idol performance song -- new single.
IMVHO Adam can breakdown more barriers by being popular and successful -- and by being himself.
>> Whatever happens, I know that Adam will win in the end <<
>> Whatever the single is, I know that I will buy every track <<
>> Whatever RCA picks, it will be OK <<
I am still secreting hoping for Cuckoo.
And I know I am likely to be denied. But I love all of Adam's songs. (Except Aftermath album production version. Shakes fist at Howard Benson.)