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Post by stardust on Jun 29, 2011 22:58:46 GMT -5
I'm nervous, too, HSM. I'm 100% sure it will be bigger than Cook's but by how much, I don't know. If the first single doesn't shoot up, right out of the gate, I would want (ya, I'm greedy) at least 80-100,000. Then it could grow from there, with more radio promo and a second single. But, if the first single really takes off and is doing well by album drop time, I think 100K+ would not be out of the question. The thing about Cook is he sold 1 million plus of album #1, had 2 platinum singles and one gold. He was an extremely popular Idol. Where do those fans go? I mean, I know he needs non-Idol fans to really have a big album or single, but shouldn't his Idol fans have gottten him more sales than 45K???? What happens to the fanbases of these guys! (Anxiously awaiting Kelly's release now.) It's scary! :-/ I can speak to that a little. I loved DC and voted for him. Pre-ordered his album and did not like it at all. SO, he lost me and I'm sure I'm not the only one. This will not happen to Adam, because his 1st album was exactly what we expected. DC apparently refused to change with the times and his new album sounds very much like the old one. It seems out-of-date and sounds to me like one hour long song. I listened to it several times and did not like it better. I doubt I am the only one. It's (I'm sorry to say) boring to me, but many of his fans love it. Just not my music. It should be very interesting to see how Daughtry does on his new album. |
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JazzRocks
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Post by JazzRocks on Jun 30, 2011 15:16:28 GMT -5
I'm seeing cook's numbers also and that's a steep decline. I'm hoping Adam has picked up more fans outside the ai base. But what is the % drop for the sophomore album? Can we tell by the vsize of the fan base by the # of acoustic albums sold? Or even the download of the Trevor single. I'm a bit nervous. Just tHink of the pressure he must be feeling! Add me to the scared group although I hate to admit it. I think what scared me initially was what I highlighted in the quote from crazyoldgal. I couldn't believe how few copies that sold. I would have expected every single AFL fan to have bought that. It was only $1.29 for pete's sake and part of that went to charity. That was the first inkling that maybe he didn't have as many core fans as I thought. So yeah - skeered. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2011 16:54:25 GMT -5
To answer the quetsion about the % drop expected for 2nd albums. I read, at MJ's (so not sure of the accuracy) that the second is usually about 65% of the first. Which would make Adam's opening week about 128,000 to be normal. BUT, there has also been a 12% drop in sales every year for the past several years due to stealing downloads and economy. So, if my math is correct, (and it probably isn't) a good first week, for #2 would be around 100,000.
ETA: I used my "formula" for Beyonce and a good first week for her, for this album would be 235,000. So, she is ahead and maybe my formula was actually correct! Of course, this isn't her 2nd album, so maybe the 65% is different for albums beyond #2.
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JazzRocks
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Post by JazzRocks on Jun 30, 2011 17:22:40 GMT -5
i would be thrilled if you were right myspenser. I hate to get my hopes up only to have them dashed. But one thing Adam has going for him (IMO) is that he is so different from any other male pop singer out there. This is not true of Cook or Kris or anyone really. He is unique. I guess that can work against him too though.
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Post by stardust on Jun 30, 2011 19:37:32 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2011 20:12:55 GMT -5
Damn!! Not good at all!! :( I don't see any of his singles helping the album out either. It's going to be hard for him to even make Gold. I really like Cook too. |
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Post by chunkeymonkey81 on Jul 1, 2011 5:53:52 GMT -5
I'm seeing cook's numbers also and that's a steep decline. I'm hoping Adam has picked up more fans outside the ai base. But what is the % drop for the sophomore album? Can we tell by thevsize of the fan base by the # of acoustic albums sold? Or even the download of the Trevor single. I'm a bit nervous. Just tHink of the pressure he must be feeling! I am no expert by any means but I wouldn't base the size of his fanbase or even on how many casual fans might buy #2 by going on the sale of his charity single. First of all it was a remix single and I really think only the most hardcore fans would buy something like that. Secondly it was a remix single of a song that a lot of people didn't really even like, not like it was a remix of a hit single or something ya know? I mean we had Aftermath the FYE version, the acoustic live version and then the remix one so I could see even the most hardcore fans being a little Aftermath-fatigued. I wouldn't even base it of the sales of his acoustic live cd. Once again it was all the same FYE songs--just acoustically--and that's not going to appeal to everyone. Esp in this day and age of dwindling record sales I am not surprised that a live concert cd isn't topping the charts, esp from a new artist with not a ton of hits under their belt. I think his fanbase is just fine and any success on #2 will rest solely with the music, because if the music is good then it will make the casual non-stan your face off and trend his name on twitter every five minutes and buy everything with his face on it-fans purchase the album as well as bring in new fans. It's all about the music. Oh and promo--which I wouldn't worry about because even is RCA drops the ball I wouldnt worry bc Adam seems pretty good at promoting himself--and radio play which hopefully is better this time around. But he is an artist just starting out and I'm sure his fanbase will continue to grow. |
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Post by JazzRocks on Jul 1, 2011 8:42:51 GMT -5
Good post chunkey! (May I call you chunkey?) One thing I don't worry about is the promotion for Adam2. I'm optimistic that it will start early and be heavy. And then there's Mr PR himself.  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2011 10:10:34 GMT -5
Awww, chunkey, I love your post. You actually made me feel better!  ITA, not worried about the promo. I mean, the man cuts or grows his hair and he makes the news! |
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rama
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Post by rama on Jul 1, 2011 18:43:58 GMT -5
At first I was really nervous about Adam 2 because of Cook's numbers. Then I listened to the album online and I couldn't get through the whole thing. I think it is boring, nothing unique at all. I think everything depends on the quality of the music. Adele didn't have any gimmicks to sell so much, but the music is good! My hope is that Adam makes great music. I think there will be enough PR for him to sell decent but only if the music is good. In that area, I trust Adam.
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